Italyโs population has stopped shrinking for the first time in 12 years, mainly due to increased migration, according to official government data released this week. This demographic shift marks a temporary break in a longโrunning decline that has concerned economists, policymakers and social planners across Europe.
Italyโs national statistics bureau, ISTAT, said preliminary figures showed the resident population was 58.94โฏmillion as of Januaryโฏ1, 2026, nearly unchanged from the previous year โ ending a steady decrease that had persisted since around 2014.
Importantly, ISTAT emphasised that immigration played a critical role in halting the shrinkage. Without the influx of migrants, the countryโs declining birth rates and ageing demographic could have driven the population down further.
Data show that births fell to just 355,000 in 2025, a historic low since the unification of Italy in 1861. Meanwhile, deaths remained at about 652,000, creating a substantial โnatural population lossโ that was offset only by net migration.
The countryโs fertility rate โ the average number of children per woman โ now stands at roughly 1.14, far below the replacement level of 2.1. This confirms that without external population movement, Italyโs internal demographics are not sufficient to sustain previous population numbers.
Net migration reached an estimated 296,000 people in 2025, with 440,000 arrivals and only 144,000 departures โ the lowest emigration figure in a decade. As a result, the number of foreignโborn residents rose to 5.56 million, illustrating how migration is reshaping Italyโs population landscape.
ISTAT officials stated that only positive net migration has managed to counterbalance the natural decline caused by falling births and a growing number of elderly residents.
Italy continues to be one of Europeโs longestโliving societies. Recent figures estimate life expectancy at around 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women, following improvements after the COVIDโ19 pandemic.
However, policymakers warn that this demographic structure โ with a larger elderly population and fewer young people โ poses longโterm economic challenges, especially in labour supply, pension funding and healthcare.